State of the Semiconductor Supply Chain 2026 — free sample

This is the Executive Summary of State of the Semiconductor Supply Chain 2026, published free and unedited exactly as it appears in the $99 report. wafergraph tracks 565 companies (416 public, 149 private) across 12 segments of the semiconductor and AI supply chain, with a combined tracked market capitalization of $39.45T across 414 priced companies (market data as of 2026-07-24). This report assembles, in one place, wafergraph's own published chokepoint and geographic-concentration studies alongside recomputed market-structure, deal-flow, and attention data — every figure is reproducible from the committed dataset. The chokepoint map. TSMC is the single biggest chokepoint in the tracked supply chain: 98 of the 565 tracked companies list it among their key suppliers, more than any other firm, followed by ASE Technology (72), Broadcom (45), and NVIDIA (45) and Vertiv (43). A "chokepoint" here is measured by supplier in-degree: how many tracked companies depend on a given firm as a key supplier. Edge coverage is partial, so every count is a lower bound, not an exhaustive census. The most-depended-on firms cluster into four groups: foundry (TSMC (98), SMIC (31), Hua Hong Semiconductor (29)), advanced packaging/OSAT (ASE Technology (72), JCET Group (29)), AI-silicon design (NVIDIA (45), Broadcom (45), AMD (23), Marvell Technology (15)), and, notably, AI-datacenter power & cooling (Vertiv (43), Schneider Electric (41), Eaton (40), Delta Electronics (40)), each depended on by roughly forty companies. Geographic concentration. The tracked supply chain has three documented geographic single points of failure. Taiwan hosts the #1 and #2 chokepoints by supplier in-degree, TSMC (98) and ASE Technology (72), and accounts for 307 of the graph's total 1432 supplier in-degree (21.4%), second only to the United States (489, 34.1%). China is the dominant producer of several minerals critical to chip manufacturing per USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: gallium (~99% of world low-purity primary), silicon metal (~85%), rare earths (~69%), indium (~70%), tungsten (~83%), and antimony (~60%), with export controls on gallium and germanium in force since 2023 and an antimony export ban on the US since December 2024. The Netherlands is home to ASML, which wafergraph classifies as a monopoly: the sole supplier of EUV lithography machines required for all leading-edge chips (supplier in-degree 11). Market structure. Named market-share estimates (wafergraph's market-share dataset, 2026-06-15 basis) show the tightest concentration in lithography, ASML at 89% of the segment by revenue (CR3 100%) — with its EUV position tighter still, as the sole supplier of the EUV scanners required for leading-edge nodes — and data-center AI accelerators, where NVIDIA holds an estimated 88% (CR3 96%). HBM memory is a three-way oligopoly (SK hynix 52%, Samsung 38%, Micron 10%; CR3 100%). At the other end, Data Center Operators (Colo) and Analog & Mixed Signal are the most fragmented segments tracked, with the largest named player holding 13% and 19% of their respective segments. Full CR/HHI tables for all 17 tracked sub-segments are in Section 4. Deal flow. The wafergraph deal corpus tracks 74 M&A, investment, capacity, subsidy, partnership, supply-agreement, and compute deals from 2015 through 2026, with $2.20T in disclosed deal value across 62 deals carrying a public value (12 deals in the corpus do not disclose a value). Deal count and disclosed value both peaked in 2024–2025 (15 and 15 deals respectively), driven by a wave of AI compute mega-deals — Stargate Project launched ($500.00B), OpenAI–Oracle $300B cloud deal ($300.00B), and OpenAI commits $250B to Azure ($250.00B) are the three largest single items in the corpus. Attention. Over the 7-day window ending 2026-07-25, InnoLight Technology was wafergraph's most-researched company and Design (Fabless) its most-researched segment, by relative reader-attention rank (raw counts are not published). Full ranked lists are in Section 6. The remaining six sections carry the full top-50 chokepoint ranking, per-country supplier-edge concentration, CR1/CR3/CR4 and HHI tables for all 17 tracked segments, the full sourced deal corpus, reader-attention data, and the methodology appendix.